The projections also assume that structural balance will be broadly achieved in Projections for and beyond assume a constant structural primary balance. United Kingdom. The fiscal projections are based on information provided in the November Pre-Budget report. Additionally, the projections incorporate the most recent statistical releases from the Office for National Statistics, including provisional budgetary outturns through December Projections are based on the budget. The consolidated fiscal projection for the provinces is consistent with their stated medium-term targets.
For the remainder of the projection period, unchanged fiscal policies are assumed. Projections for are based on the budget plans, adjusted for the difference between the budget assumptions and the weaker outlook envisaged by the staff. Projections for —08 assume a further small improvement.
In subsequent years, two key assumptions are made: 1 the revenue to GDP ratio is only affected by the existing tax reform plans; and 2 a real primary expenditure growth target of 1. Projections for reflect the budget presented by the authorities adjusted for IMF staff macroeconomic projections. The projections assume a fiscal policy that is consistent with achieving a balanced budget, excluding social security, in the medium term.
The framework is based on binding multiyear ceilings for real expenditure. In subsequent years, the fiscal projections assume no significant changes in these policies.
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The fiscal projections are based on information provided in the October Budget report. Additionally, the projections incorporate the most recent statistical releases from Statistics Sweden, including provisional budgetary outturns through December Projections for are based on federal budget plans and staff projections for lower levels of government.
Monetary policy assumptions are based on the established policy framework in each country. In most cases, this implies a nonaccommodative stance over the business cycle: official interest rates will therefore increase when economic indicators suggest that prospective inflation will rise above its acceptable rate or range; and they will decrease when indicators suggest that prospective inflation will not exceed the acceptable rate or range, that prospective output growth is below its potential rate, and that the margin of slack in the economy is significant.
The projected path for U. Federal Reserve will begin to raise interest rates in late The interest rate on six-month Japanese yen deposits is assumed to average 0. The rate on six-month euro deposits is assumed to average 2. Changes in interest rate assumptions compared with the September World Economic Outlook are summarized in Table 1. Data and projections for countries form the statistical basis for the World Economic Outlook the World Economic Outlook database. Although national statistical agencies are the ultimate providers of historical data and definitions, international organizations are also involved in statistical issues, with the objective of harmonizing methodologies for the national compilation of statistics, including the analytical frameworks, concepts, definitions, classifications, and valuation procedures used in the production of economic statistics.
The World Economic Outlook database reflects information from both national source agencies and international organizations. The process of adapting country balance of payments data to the definitions of the new BPM began with the May World Economic Outlook.
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However, full concordance with the BPM is ultimately dependent on the provision by national statistical compilers of revised country data, and hence the World Economic Outlook estimates are still only partially adapted to the BPM. The members of the European Union have adopted a harmonized system for the compilation of the national accounts, referred to as ESA All national accounts data from onward are presented on the basis of the new system. Revision by national authorities of data prior to to conform to the new system has progressed, but has in some cases not been completed.
In such cases, historical World Economic Outlook data have been carefully adjusted to avoid breaks in the series.
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Users of EU national accounts data prior to should nevertheless exercise caution until such time as the revision of historical data by national statistical agencies has been fully completed. See Box 1. Composite data for country groups in the World Economic Outlook are either sums or weighted averages of data for individual countries. Unless otherwise indicated, multiyear averages of growth rates are expressed as compound annual rates of change. Arithmetically weighted averages are used for all data except inflation and money growth for the developing and transition country groups, for which geometric averages are used.
The following conventions apply. For central and eastern European countries, external transactions in nonconvertible currencies through are converted to U. The country classification in the World Economic Outlook divides the world into three major groups: advanced economies, developing countries, and countries in transition. A few countries are presently not included in these groups, either because they are not IMF members, and their economies are not monitored by the IMF, or because databases have not yet been compiled.
It should also be noted that, owing to a lack of data, only three of the former republics of the dissolved Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia Croatia, the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, and Slovenia are included in the group composites for countries in transition. Each of the three main country groups is further divided into a number of subgroups.
World Economic Outlook, April 1987 (English)
Among the advanced economies, the seven largest in terms of GDP, collectively referred to as the major advanced countries, are distinguished as a subgroup, and so are the 15 current members of the European Union, the 12 members of the euro area, and the four newly industrialized Asian economies. The developing countries are classified by region, as well as into a number of analytical and other groups. A regional breakdown is also used for the classification of the countries in transition.
Table A provides an overview of these standard groups in the World Economic Outlook , showing the number of countries in each group and the average shares of groups in aggregate PPP-valued GDP, total exports of goods and services, and population. The 29 advanced economies are listed in Table B. The current members of the European Union 15 countries , the euro area 12 countries , and the newly industrialized Asian economies are also distinguished as subgroups. Composite data shown in the tables for the European Union and the euro area cover the current members for all years, even though the membership has increased over time.
Before , economic data are not available on a unified basis or in a consistent manner. Hence, in tables featuring data expressed as annual percent change, these apply to west Germany in years up to and including , but to unified Germany from onward.
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In general, data on national accounts and domestic economic and financial activity through cover west Germany only, whereas data for the central government and balance of payments apply to west Germany through June and to unified Germany thereafter. The group of developing countries countries includes all countries that are not classified as advanced economies or as countries in transition, together with a few dependent territories for which adequate statistics are available.
Because all of the non-advanced countries in Europe except Malta and Turkey are included in the group of countries in transition, the World Economic Outlook classification places these two countries in a combined Middle East and Turkey region. In both classifications, Egypt and the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya are included in this region, not in Africa. Three additional regional groupings—two of them constituting part of Africa and one a subgroup of Asia—are included in the World Economic Outlook because of their analytical significance.
The developing countries are also classified according to analytical criteria and into other groups. The detailed composition of developing countries in the regional, analytical, and other groups is shown in Tables C through E. The first analytical criterion, by source of export earnings , distinguishes between categories: fuel Standard International Trade Classification—SITC 3 and nonfuel and then focuses on nonfuel primary products SITC 0, 1, 2, 4, and The financial criteria focus on net creditor and net debtor countries , which are differentiated on the basis of two additional financial criteria: by official external financing and by experience with debt servicing.
The group of countries in transition 28 countries is divided into two regional subgroups: central and eastern Europe, and the Commonwealth of Independent States and Mongolia.
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The detailed country composition is shown in Table F. One common characteristic of these countries is the transitional state of their economies from a centrally administered system to one based on market principles. Another is that this transition involves the transformation of sizable industrial sectors whose capital stocks have proven largely obsolete. These countries are therefore classified in the developing country group rather than in the group of countries in transition.
Current Account Transactions. Balance of Payments and External Financing. External Debt and Debt Service. Medium-Term Baseline Scenario. Bureau of Labor Statistics in January Data for some countries are for fiscal years. For many countries, figures for recent years are IMF staff estimates. The figures should be interpreted only as indicative of broad orders of magnitude because reliable, comparable data are not generally available. In particular the growth of output of new private enterprises of the informal economy is not fully reflected in the recent figures.
Consumer price indices with a broader and more up-to-date coverage are typically used for more recent years. Quasi-money is essentially private term deposits and there notice deposits.
The United States also includes money market mutual fund balances, money market deposit accounts, overnight repurchase agreements, and overnight Eurodollars issued to U. See Box A1 for a summary of the policy assumptions underlying the projections.
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The structural budget position is defined as the actual budget deficit or surplus less the effects of cyclical deviations of output from potential output. Because of the margin of uncertainty that attaches to estimates of cyclical gaps and to tax and expenditure elasticities with respect to national income, indicators of structural budget positions should be interpreted as broad orders of magnitude.
Moreover, it is important to note that changes in structural budget balances are not necessarily attributable to policy changes but may reflect the built-in momentum of existing expenditure programs. In the period beyond that for which specific consolidation programs exist, it is assumed that the structural deficit remains unchanged.